The Business Master (4th Edition)

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Text File | 1993-12-30 | 22KB | 398 lines

.TOPIC: contents Software and Service IS Strategic Decisions: Desktop Imaging Software CBEMA: Software and Service Market Data Analysis Group: Software Forrester Research: LAN Operating System Market Forrester Research: Worldwide Software Market Frost & Sullivan: Network Outsourcing Market Software Publishers Association: North American PC Software Market .TOPIC: IS Strategic Decisions: Desktop Imaging Software "The TWAIN specification is the best thing the scanning industry could have done for users. Suddenly, all TWAIN-compliant software and scanners will work seamlessly together, simplifying user purchase decisions and widening product choices. Already, IS predicts healthy sales over the next four years for both desktop imaging hardware and software. BIS forecasts that scanner hardware unit sales will jump 40% from 525,000 Mac and PC desktop and hand-held scanners sales in 1991 to 1,313,700 in 1995. A dramatic 50% growth rate is forecast for desktop imaging software units in 1992--steadily climbing to reach 5,027,000 unit sales by 1995."--BIS Strategic Decisions Desktop Imaging Software (K) 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 Image Editing Software 495.0 843.0 876.0 1,069.0 1,256.0 Illustration Software 325.0 460.0 575.0 690.0 759.0 OCR Software 260.0 339.0 403.0 474.0 547.0 Page Composition Software 342.0 363.0 389.0 417.0 446.0 PC Fax Software 75.0 226.0 488.0 929.0 1,579.0 Desktop DIMS Software 21.9 61.0 144.0 274.0 440.0 Total Desktop Imaging Software 1,518.9 2,292.0 2,875.0 3,853.0 5,027.0 Copyright April 1992, BIS Strategic Decisions, 1 Longwater Circle, Norwell MA, 02061. .TOPIC: CBEMA: Software and Service Market "The computer software and services sector of the information technology industry has also experienced rapid growth during the past twenty years. From a $3.0B market in 1971, it grew to $21.0B in 1981 and is estimated to have been $107.2B in 1991. This represents a 21.5% CGR for the ten year period 1971-1981 and 17.7% for the 1981-1991 period. The total U.S. services industry as a component of GNP rose from 30.6% in 1981 to an estimated 37.7% in 1991. During this ten year time frame, computer software and services rose from 2.2% of the U.S. services sector to 5.0%. `Among the various information technology industry sectors, computer software and services is forecast to experience the most rapid growth rate, 12.7% for the period 1991-2002, and reach $401.2B in the year 2002. As markets grow in absolute dollars, their CGRs slow down and this sector will be no exception. Its rate of increase is expected to be twice that of GNP and 69% more than the services industry part of GNP."-- CBEMA Computer Year U.S. Services Growth Software & Growth Total ($B) Rate (%) Services ($B) Rate (%) 1970 284.0 8.8 2.5 25.0 1971 310.7 9.4 3.0 20.0 1972 341.3 9.8 3.4 13.3 1973 373.0 9.3 4.3 26.5 1974 411.9 10.4 5.5 27.9 1975 461.2 12.0 6.5 18.2 1976 515.9 11.9 7.0 7.7 1977 582.3 12.9 8.0 14.3 1978 656.1 12.7 10.0 25.0 1979 734.6 12.0 13.5 35.0 1980 831.9 13.2 18.0 33.3 1981 934.7 12.4 21.0 16.7 1982 1,027.0 9.9 23.5 11.4 1983 1,128.7 9.9 28.2 20.0 1984 1,227.6 8.8 35.3 25.2 1985 1,345.6 9.6 40.7 15.3 1986 1,449.5 7.7 45.0 10.6 1987 1,584.7 9.3 53.9 19.8 1988 1,720.7 8.6 68.1 26.3 1989 1,845.5 7.3 79.9 17.3 1990 1,983.3 7.5 94.1 17.8 1991E 2,124.6 7.1 107.2 13.9 1992P 2,275.4 7.1 122.0 13.8 1993P 2.435.9 7.1 138.9 13.9 1994P 2,612.5 7.2 157.2 13.2 1995P 2,801.9 7.2 177.5 12.9 1996P 3,007.8 7.3 200.6 13.0 2002P 4,685.7 401.2 CGR '71-'81 (%) 11.6 21.5 CGR `81-'91 (%) 8.6 17.7 CGR `91-'02 (%) 7.5 12.7 Manifold Year Business Growth Telecom Growth Forms ($B) Rate (%) Services ($B) Rate (%) 1970 1.3 8.3 23.7 11.8 1971 1.4 7.7 26.0 9.7 1972 1.5 7.1 29.4 13.1 1973 1.8 20.0 33.7 14.6 1974 2.4 33.3 37.5 11.3 1975 2.3 -4.2 42.1 12.3 1976 2.4 4.3 47.9 13.8 1977 3.0 25.0 53.8 12.3 1978 3.4 13.3 61.4 14.1 1979 4.1 20.6 68.5 11.6 1980 4.6 12.2 76.3 11.4 1981 5.0 8.7 87.8 15.1 1982 5.2 4.0 97.8 11.4 1983 5.5 5.8 102.9 5.2 1984 5.9 7.3 112.6 9.4 1985 6.3 6.8 117.4 4.3 1986 6.7 6.3 123.4 5.1 1987 7.0 4.5 132.3 7.2 1988 7.6 8.6 141.4 6.9 1989 8.1 6.6 148.0 4.7 1990 8.4 3.7 153.5 3.7 1991E 8.8 4.8 159.6 4.0 1992P 9.3 5.7 165.8 3.9 1993P 9.8 5.4 173.3 4.5 1994P 10.3 5.1 181.4 4.7 1995P 10.8 4.9 189.9 4.7 1996P 11.4 5.6 198.8 4.7 2002P 15.2 260.8 CGR `71-'81 (%)13.6 12.9 CGR `81-'91 (%)5.8 6.2 CGR `91-'02 (%)5.1 4.6 Excerpted with permission from CBEMA's (Computer and Business Equipment Manufacturers Association) The Information Technology Industry Data Book 1960-2002. Copyright 1992, CBEMA, 311 First Street NW, Washington DC 20001. Copyright 1992, BDA Associates, Inc., 32 Dorchester Road, Eastchester, NY 10709. .TOPIC: Data Analysis Group: Software "These forecasts of the total U.S. market are based on data reported in Computer Industry Forecasts since 1984. All forecasts are computed with a statistical model which weights information inversely to time from reporting. Forecasts are updated in January and June. There is approximately 90% confidence that forecasts lie within the Low and High limits."--Data Analysis Group: Product Categories Year Low Mid High Systems Integration ($B) 1990 9.8 12.8 13.2 Systems Integration ($B) 1991 11.3 14.3 15.8 Systems Integration ($B) 1992 13.7 16.0 19.7 Systems Integration ($B) 1993 15.8 17.9 23.4 Systems Integration ($B) 1994 14.4 20.2 22.1 Systems Integration ($B) 1995 17.5 22.9 27.6 Systems Integration ($B) 1996 18.6 25.9 30.3 Systems Integration CAGR (%) 1993-96 5.7% 13.0% 9.0% Image Processing ($B) 1990 1.1 1.2 1.4 Image Processing ($B) 1991 1.6 1.9 2.2 Image Processing ($B) 1992 2.4 2.8 3.4 Image Processing ($B) 1993 3.3 4.0 4.8 Image Processing ($B) 1994 4.5 5.8 7.0 Image Processing ($B) 1995 6.4 8.4 10.6 Image Processing ($B) 1996 7.7 10.1 13.4 Image Processing CAGR (%) 1993-96 33.2% 36.1% 40.4% Security Software ($B) 1990 0.7 0.8 1.0 Security Software ($B) 1991 0.8 1.0 1.2 Security Software ($B) 1992 0.9 1.2 1.4 Security Software ($B) 1993 1.0 1.4 1.7 Security Software ($B) 1994 1.1 1.6 2.1 Security Software ($B) 1995 1.3 1.9 2.6 Security Software ($B) 1996 1.4 2.1 3.0 Security Software CAGR (%) 1993-96 12.9% 14.7% 20.7% Multiuser Software ($B) 1990 17.8 22.3 22.7 Multiuser Software ($B) 1991 21.2 24.1 28.1 Multiuser Software ($B) 1992 19.7 26.0 27.3 Multiuser Software ($B) 1993 24.4 28.1 35.1 Multiuser Software ($B) 1994 23.5 30.3 35.3 Multiuser Software ($B) 1995 26.0 32.4 40.7 Multiuser Software ($B) 1996 24.2 34.4 39.5 Multiuser Software CAGR (%) 1993-96 -0.2% 7.0% 4.0% Geographic Information Systems ($B) 1990 0.8 1.0 1.1 Geographic Information Systems ($B) 1991 1.2 1.6 1.9 Geographic Information Systems ($B) 1992 1.6 2.4 2.8 Geographic Information Systems ($B) 1993 2.2 3.2 4.1 Geographic Information Systems ($B) 1994 2.9 4.2 5.6 Geographic Information Systems ($B) 1995 3.5 5.3 7.2 Geographic Information Systems ($B) 1996 4.3 6.6 9.6 Geographic Information Systems CAGR (%) 1993-96 24.4% 26.6% 33.1% PC Software ($B) 1990 5.5 6.4 7.6 PC Software ($B) 1991 5.9 7.1 8.5 PC Software ($B) 1992 5.8 8.0 8.8 PC Software ($B) 1993 6.5 8.8 10.2 PC Software ($B) 1994 7.1 10.0 11.5 PC Software ($B) 1995 9.0 11.2 15.4 PC Software ($B) 1996 9.2 11.8 16.3 PC Software CAGR (%) 1993-96 12.2% 10.3% 17.1% Excerpted with permission from Data Analysis Group. Copyright 1993, Data Analysis Group, 3201 Hanson Road, Box 4210, Georgetown, CA 95624. .TOPIC: Forrester Research: LAN Operating System Market "Forrester's recent report `New LAN O/S Pastures,' argues that LAN operating system (LAN O/S) vendors must focus on developing new business areas as market growth slows. In 1992, Forrester estimates that the U.S. LAN O/S market will near $550M, with 5.6M new clients networked, and that Novell's market share is a steady 64% of clients sold. Over the next three years, Forrester projects that growth rates will decline--to 18% in 1992 and 12% by 1995. This is considerably lower than the 45% - 50% compounding the market enjoyed in 1989-1991. `Several factors are draining the vigor out of LAN operating system growth rates. Chief among them are declining PC desktop shipments--a growing portion of PCs shipped are laptops that are not networked with file-sharing LANs. In addition, low-end peer networks are eating away at 5 - 15 user LANs. This trend will become more acute when Microsoft ships built-in peer networking for Windows 3.1 and NT later this year. `In the coming market, there is not much room for Novell to grow at breakneck speeds. Nor is there much chance for others to wrest control of the market from Novell in basic network services such as file and print. Instead, vendors must deliver additional servers for mail, database and communications into existing NetWare LANs."--Forrester Research U.S. Server Operating Systems Revenues 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 File/Print Servers ($M) 435 547 640 720 798 Additional Servers ($M) 99 205 371 497 636 Total Revenues ($M) 534 752 1,011 1,217 1,434 Copyright August 1992, Forrester Research Inc., 1 Brattle Square, Cambridge, MA 02138. .TOPIC: Forrester Research: Worldwide Software Market "Between 1991 and 1996, the worldwide market for business and personal productivity software will mushroom from $45.1B to $101.5B. Forrester also predicts that market dominance will shift dramatically in the next five years: independent software vendors (ISVs) will wrestle control from systems vendors, as the ISV share of the total market climbs from 45% to 57%. More importantly, ISVs will dominate the strategically critical database and application product categories. `The hottest segments in software will be client/server and database-- and ISVs will grab over 70% of the 19991-1996 gains in those two areas. Meanwhile, the system vendors will still be shackled to software for timesharing computers. And that segment will only grow at an average of 11% per year for the next half-decade. The entire client/server segment, for example, is only 3% of the total market in 1991, but by 1996 it will account for a substantial 20% of the market. Timesharing, though, won't disappear--in fact, it will still total over half of the worldwide software market in 1996. However, ISVs will be leading the market away from timesharing, as their dependence on that platform will drop from 59% of their revenues in 1991, to only 36% of sales in 1996."--Forrester Research Software segments: 1991 1996 Service and Maintenance ($B) 9.7 24.4 Applications ($B) 10.7 24.3 Development Tools ($B) 6.7 16.4 Databases ($B) 4.1 10.4 Operating Systems and Utilities ($B) 13.9 26.0 Total software ($B) 45.1 101.5 Share of Market: ISVs versus System Vendors 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 System Vendors (%) 54.7 53.0 50.9 48.5 45.8 42.8 Independent Software Vendors (%) 45.3 47.0 49.1 51.5 44.2 57.2 Software's Changing Platform 1991 1996 Timesharing (%) 73.7 55.6 Client/Server (%) 3.0 20.5 Filesharing (%) 8.1 9.1 Standalone (%) 15.2 14.8 Total Worldwide Market ($B) 45.1 101.5 Copyright June 1992, Forrester Research Inc., 1 Brattle Square, Cambridge, MA 02138. .TOPIC: Frost & Sullivan: Network Outsourcing Market "Rapid developments in telecommunications technology will fuel rapid growth in the network outsourcing market and revenues to more than triple from $2.6B in 1992 to $8.4B in 1997. Stand-alone outsourcing companies and computer equipment providers should account for $1.4B of this in 1992 to $4.1B in 1997. Telecommunications equipment makers and service suppliers are forecast to see their share of the market rise slightly as revenues jump from $1.3B to $4.3B over the five years."-- Frost & Sullivan Total Revenue 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 Total for Network Outsourcing Services ($B) 2.6 3.4 4.3 5.5 6.8 8.4 31.0 Copyright November 1992, Frost & Sullivan, 106 Fulton Street, New York, NY 10038. .TOPIC: Software Publishers Association: North American PC Software Market "The North American personal computer application software sales reached $1.71B in the fourth quarter of 1992 and a total of $5.75B for the calendar year. Full year sales were up 14.1% from $5.04B in 1991, while the fourth quarter sales figure was a 9.6% increase from $1.56B in fourth quarter of 1991. Unit sales in North America were up strongly, increasing 36% for the year and 40% for the fourth quarter. `Sales of DOS applications continued to decline in the fourth quarter, dropping 15.4% from $859M to $726M. For the full year, DOS application sales declined 12.8%. Windows application sales were $1.93B, up 95.6% from $989M in 1991."--Software Publishers Association PC/MS-DOS Windows Software Segments 1991 1992 1991 1992 Entertainment ($M) 210.6 267.2 12.2 29.6 Home Education ($M) 76.0 104.3 na 12.4 Finance ($M) 188.5 220.3 13.9 45.0 Word Processors ($M) 442.6 249.0 253.3 417.9 Spreadsheets ($M) 408.4 332.1 208.6 343.6 Databases ($M) 267.8 267.2 2.9 31.2 Integrated ($M) 84.8 66.4 11.2 28.9 Utilities ($M) 207.8 154.4 21.6 98.8 Presentation Graphics ($M) 151.4 94.0 50.3 142.4 Drawing & Painting ($M) 2.0 2.5 69.6 145.0 Desktop Publishing ($M) 19.3 10.1 73.3 75.8 Other Graphics ($M) 101.8 103.4 12.2 87.5 Languages & Tools ($M) 89.2 79.0 57.2 87.1 Other Productivity ($M) 577.9 633.9 143.0 389.4 Total Software ($M) 2,962.7 2,583.8 989.0 1,934.6 Macintosh Other Software Segments 1991 1992 1991 1992 Entertainment ($M) 25.0 31.4 16.3 13.6 Home Education ($M) 13.8 22.6 9.6 6.7 Finance ($M) 23.7 30.9 na na Word Processors ($M) 92.5 144.3 24.2 18.4 Spreadsheets ($M) 97.8 92.5 24.4 27.0 Databases ($M) 40.1 48.2 na 1.8 Integrated ($M) 24.7 47.6 7.3 5.3 Utilities ($M) 46.7 68.3 1.0 na Presentation Graphics ($M) 35.1 49.0 4.5 3.8 Drawing & Painting ($M) 108.9 110.3 3.0 4.0 Desktop Publishing ($M) 44.8 53.8 1.8 na Other Graphics ($M) 66.2 69.9 6.9 3.5 Languages & Tools ($M) 20.7 18.3 84.5 75.0 Other Productivity ($M) 209.9 202.5 88.0 76.4 Total Software ($M) 823.5 989.7 270.1 237.2 Total Software Segments 1991 1992 Entertainment ($M) 265.4 341.8 Home Education ($M) 99.3 146.1 Finance ($M) 220.3 296.3 Word Processors ($M) 812.4 829.5 Spreadsheets ($M) 739.1 795.3 Databases ($M) 309.7 348.5 Integrated ($M) 127.9 148.1 Utilities ($M) 277.8 322.3 Presentation Graphics ($M) 242.5 289.3 Drawing & Painting ($M) 185.2 261.8 Desktop Publishing ($M) 140.4 140.6 Other Graphics ($M) 193.0 264.2 Languages & Tools ($M) 250.6 259.5 Other Productivity ($M) 1,086.6 1,302.2 Total Software ($M) 5,036.6 5,745.4 Excepted with permission from Software Publishers Association, March 1993. Copyright 1993, Software Publishers Association, 1730 M Street, Suite 700, Washington, DC 20036.